Market News May 22, 2012

NAR: Positive Signs Abound for Housing

The first quarter of 2012 was the best first quarter for real estate in five years, and pending contracts suggest that the second quarter of 2012 will be the best second quarter in five years, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said this morning at the Residential Economic Update during the NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo. Moreover, he said the second half of this year could be even better than the first, in part because of continued increases in rental costs and record affordability of homes. “Renters are getting squeezed, and they don’t want to rent anymore,” Yun explained. “This could be the year we see the release of pent-up demand.”
Home prices have been skipping along the bottom for about a year now, Yun said, a trend that has drawn investors into the market. These investors have helped housing through a couple of difficult years and partly mitigated the dysfunctional mortgage market. “Right now is the time to buy low,” he said. “Investors are coming in to take advantage. Second homes started to recover nicely last year because of investors.”
However, home values are poised for a rebound as more traditional buyers move back into the market, Yun said. In fact, this has already started to happen in areas such as Phoenix and Miami, which have seen year-over-year (March 2011 to March 2012) double-digit percentage increases in home prices.As real estate improves, consumer psychology around home ownership will change, he added. Coupled with the recent — if relatively modest — job growth and stock market gains, conditions are right for a sustained housing recovery.
For the full article including the forecast on when interest rates will rise, click here
Positive Signs Abound for Housing NAR Daily Real Estate News | Thursday, May 17, 2012

Re-posted from Realtor Magazine Article: Positive Signs Abound for Housing
Graphic: HouseKeysGray
BuyersHome OwnershipMarket NewsPricingReal EstateSell January 27, 2011

Good News: Existing Home Sales Jump

As you wander through life,
whatever be your goal,
keep your eye on the donut
and not on the hole!
-Sign in the Mayflower Coffee Shop, Chicago



This quote came to us through our Windermere Coeur d’Alene Realty newsletter this week, and we thought you would appreciate it.

It’s also a great introduction to the Market News that we want to pass along to you today.  It’s GOOD NEWS, especially in the context of the news of recent years. 

Daily Real Estate News  |  January 20, 2011
REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-December Existing-Home Sales Jump

Existing-home sales rose sharply in December, when sales increased for the fifth time in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 12.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million in December from an upwardly revised 4.70 million in November, but remain 2.9 percent below the 5.44 million pace in December 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales are on an uptrend. “December was a good finish to 2010, when sales fluctuate more than normal. The pattern over the past six months is clearly showing a recovery,” he said. “The December pace is near the volume we’re expecting for 2011, so the market is getting much closer to an adequate, sustainable level. The recovery will likely continue as job growth gains momentum and rising rents encourage more renters into ownership while exceptional affordability conditions remain.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,800 in December, which is 1.0 percent below December 2009. Distressed homes rose to a 36 percent market share in December from 33 percent in November, and 32 percent in December 2009.

 “The modest rise in distressed sales, which typically are discounted 10 to 15 percent relative to traditional homes, dampened the median price in December, but the flat price trend continues,” Yun explained.

We’ve been focusing on the donut instead of the hole – and we’ve already closed several transactions in 2011!

We have strategies that WORK!  We can help you buy or sell real estate this year. Call us Today!

Randy or Christy Oetken
208-660-0506



Home OwnershipI.R.S.InterestMortgagePollReal EstateSave MoneyTaxes January 17, 2011

Mortgage Interest Deduction: WE SUPPORT IT!

Mortgage Interest Deduction?  OF COURSE!

We’re with Lawrence Yun, of the National Association of Realtors:

It’s a common misperception that the mortgage interest deduction benefits primarily the wealthy, as argued in the Washington Post’s January 1 editorial, “Trim the Excessive Tax Subsidy for Real Estate.”

In fact, the MID actually benefits primarily middle- and lower income families. Sixty five percent of families who claim the MID earn less than $100,000 per year, and 91 percent who claim the benefit earn less than $200,000 per year. As a percentage of income, the biggest MID beneficiaries are younger middle-class families.

The MID helps many families become home owners by reducing the carrying costs of owning a home. The ability to deduct the interest paid on a mortgage can mean significant savings at tax time. For example, a family who bought a home last year with a $200,000, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, assuming an interest rate of 5 percent, could save nearly $3,500 in federal taxes when they file next year. That’s real money they can use to pay down other debts, save for their children’s college education, or put away for retirement.

It’s no wonder, then, that most Americans support the MID. In fact, in a recent NAR survey by Harris Interactive of 3,000 home owners and renters, nearly three-fourths of home owners and two-thirds of renters said the MID was extremely or very important to them.

Unlike the very rich, much of whose wealth is tied to the stock market, the wealth of most middle-class American families is connected to their home. Millions of these Americans bought their homes with the understanding that mortgage interest is tax-deductible, and many of them have steadily paid down their mortgages to build equity in their home. Eliminating or reducing the MID would destroy part of this hard-earned equity for all home owners, independent of their tax filing status.

Furthermore, we also need to be mindful that home owners already pay 80 percent to 90 percent of U.S. federal income tax, and this share could rise to 95 percent if the MID is eliminated. Proposals that would remove certain tax benefits in return for lower tax rates just may hold for one or two terms of Congress before the tax rates are changed again. Americans are not naïve; they understand the nature of Washington politics.

For people who don’t have hundreds of thousands of dollars in savings to buy a home outright, tax benefits like the MID help them begin building their futures through home ownership…

We’d like to know what YOU think!  Take our poll!

“Do You Support the Mortgage Interest Deduction?”

Comments are open, and we hope you’ll express your opinion!  We’d love to hear from you.

Market NewsReal Estate December 7, 2010

Strong Rebound in Pending Home Sales

Washington, DC, December 02, 2010

Pending home sales jumped in October, showing a positive uptrend since bottoming in June, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, rose 10.4 percent to 89.3 based on contracts signed in October from 80.9 in September. The index remains 20.5 percent below a surge to a cyclical peak of 112.4 in October 2009, which was the highest level since May 2006 when it hit 112.6.

Last October, first-time buyers were motivated to make offers before the initial contract deadline for the tax credit last November. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said excellent housing affordability conditions are drawing home buyers. “It is welcoming to see a solid double-digit percentage gain, but activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels. The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011,” he said.

“More importantly, a return to more normal loan underwriting standards and removal of unnecessary underwriting fees for very low risk borrowers is needed and could quickly help in the housing and economic recovery,” Yun said. Recent loan performance data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac clearly demonstrates very low default rates on recently originated mortgages, much lower that the vintages of 2002 and 2003 before the housing boom.

The PHSI in the Northeast jumped 19.6 percent to 71.3 in October but is 27.3 percent below the tax credit peak in October 2009. In the Midwest the index surged 27.3 percent in October to 81.7 but is 24.8 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 7.1 percent to an index of 93.8 but are 18.4 percent below October 2009. In the West the index slipped 0.4 percent to 104.3 and is 15.6 percent below a year ago.

Near term, Yun expects home sales will continue to climb from their cyclical low this past summer. “Even so, we now have some consumer concerns regarding the mortgage interest deduction, an important component in housing affordability,” he said. “Preliminary results of a new survey show nearly three out of four home owners and two out of three renters consider the mortgage interest deduction to be extremely or very important to them. Home owners already pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal income taxes and additional tax burden would hurt them and the economic recovery, so we have a reasonable hope that it will not be changed.”

The National Association of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

###

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

NOTE: The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released December 30 with release dates being moved up for 2011, and existing-home sales for November will be reported December 22; release times are 10:00 a.m. EST.

REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark which may be used only by real estate professionals who are members of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® and subscribe to its strict Code of Ethics. Not all real estate agents are REALTORS®. All REALTORS® are members of NAR.

http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/12/strong_phs